The Referendum – Some thoughts

Posted on by Opher

These are the results of the referendum. It was close. The population of Britain is 60 million. 46,500,000 were entitled to vote. 17,410,742 voted us out.

What does that all mean?

Remain: 16,141,241 (48.1%)

Leave: 17,410,742 (51.9%)

Total Electorate: 46,500,001

Turnout: 72.2%

Well under half of those who were eligible to vote voted out.

Just over half of those who voted wanted us out for a number of reasons – terrorism, immigration, sovereignty, hatred of EU, economy, protest against establishment, bureaucracy, undemocratic aspects of EU, loss of hope, more trade with the rest of the world.

Just under half wanted us to stay in – collaboration with EU, multiculturalism, economic prosperity, fighting terrorism and crime, environmental collaboration, outward looking, caring, more global perspective, bigger part in the world, compassion.

Since the referendum there has been an upsurge in nationalism and hate crime. The pound has dived putting petrol and other prices up and there has been a lot of division and belligerence. The worst economic shock will come if we actually leave. As a vociferous remainer I have had to put up with abuse – being described as a whinging remoaner or remainder and as being undemocratic. Well that’s alright. I am not only moaning I am furious and in despair of my country and what it is becoming. I do not like nationalism, isolationism or xenophobia or right-wing politics, and despise the licence it has given to that small element of racist thugs who have abused people of colour or those stemming from the EU.

I am now looking to a dismal future if we do go ahead and pull out. The cost of Brexit looks to be in the region of £26-£46 Billion. That makes our £8.5 Billion contribution to the EU look a bargain. The result of Brexit looks to be years of restricted growth, austerity, job losses and public service cuts. You can bet that the ones at the top won’t suffer!! Worse than that is the fact that we now have an extreme right-wing government and an empowered xenophobic segment of the populace who are affecting the ethos of the country. The atmosphere is not pleasant.

I have always stood for a caring, tolerant, and compassionate society. That is what I continue to fight for.

I noted that Nigel Farage said, when he thought he was losing, that the battle would go on. It will – because it is the whole ethos of our country that is at stake. When we lost general elections we did not stop fighting for a return to a Labour government; we continued to fight for our principles. That is what is required – we have to stand up for what we believe.

For me I hope that there might be a way to prevent this looming disaster. Brexit will be a great blow to everything Britain stands for. I hate to see it become an insular, fear-ridden, hate-filled, isolated country living in a past that never existed. People soon forget the evils carried out in the name of Empire and the poverty, inequality and racism extant in the fifties and sixties. We’ve moved on and become much better than that.

My hope is that sanity prevails; that parliament and the people take a good hard look at the prospect of economic doom and social division that is looming (now that the lies have been exposed), and apply a democratic vote to keep us in.

There are far better ways of dealing with the undemocratic aspects of the EU, terrorism and mass migration. We don’t have to plunge the country into chaos, division and economic peril.

For now the government has to find a path through this turmoil and hatred. At present 50% of the population do not feel represented! There is no attempt to unite or find compromise – only a jubilant crowing from the arrogant Brexiteers who belligerently, cheered on by the likes of the Mail, Express and Telegraph, bellow every time someone raises an objection to this suicide note.

A tolerant, compassionate and caring ethos is one worth fighting for! You can hurl abuse all you like but I’m sticking to my principles! I’m not moaning – I’m shouting my thoughts, feelings and beliefs! I want a fair world!!

 

The reason to Remain – in a nutshell

Posted on by Opher

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Get out and vote Remain – don’t let the extremists in!

  1. To vote out votes in a hard-line Tory government led by Gove and Johnson – goodbye public services, hello privatisation
  2. To vote out sends the economy into a huge crash costing jobs, running down services and making us all poorer
  3. To vote out does not solve the immigration problem
  4. To vote in puts us in the decision making processes
  5. To vote in gives us more power
  6. To vote in makes us safer with unity and cooperation to counter terrorism
  7. To vote in helps us protect the environment
  8. To vote in protects our human and workers rights
  9. To vote in is a move towards a global perspective that is the future of the world
  10. To vote in helps us all grow together
  11. To vote in is a move towards controlling Multinational Corporations
  12. To vote out will not lessen the red tape – we will still have to comply in order to sell

Who cares about the Queen? Sovereignty or the class system? We have sovereignty and identity now. We have control on our borders. We have the laws we need to deport criminals or lock them up. 93% of our laws are made by our parliament.

I don’t trust Gove and Johnson.

Hope is the currency.

We have to sort out the migration, bureaucracy and gravy train from inside the EU. We’d have influence.

So get out there and vote Remain. It is by far the lesser of two evils.

Which way to vote? A letter from a mother.

Posted on by Opher

I know my feelings and thoughts regarding the ensuing vote. They are quite clear: I am firmly for Remain. But I can also greatly appreciate the genuine concerns and fears of those who wish to leave. I too have concerns regarding immigration in particular.

My contention is that those concerns will not be addressed by leaving. Indeed I believe things will be much worse.

Wading through the morass of lies, exaggerations and scare stories put out by both sides is a nightmare. So I was greatly impressed when this was sent through to me by a friend of ours. She has spent the time to look into it in depth:
As a busy working mum of two young children, I’ve never really had the time to keep up with Politics! So I admit it has taken some effort to get my head round both sides of the most topical argument of our time: Whether Britain should Leave or Remain in the EU.

Whilst taking in both sides of the argument, I have come to feel many things.   Frustration at so many misleading statements! Anger around the lack of visibility of the voice of certain leaders like the head of the Labour party! But most of all, SADNESS… that a great injustice is being done as many people don’t know what they are voting for because they have been misled by statements that pull on their hearts and emotions.

I thought I’d post my perspective, as a mum who’s thinking about her children and their future, pulling on points I have discovered from others.  I hope this will be helpful to others who may still be “on the fence”.

Please share if you found this useful!

Let me start with a list of high profile figures and institutions on each side.  Some may surprise you!

Remain:

Former British Prime Ministers Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and John Major (1 – see Sources below)
The Labour party (2)
Every other major UK political party leader including Nicola Sturgeon (3)
Barack Obama (4)
Hillary Clinton (5)
Angela Merkel (6)
Stephen Hawking and 83% of scientists (7)
Sir Richard Branson (8)
40 religious leaders (9)
300 leading historians (10)
The Trades Union Congress and our six largest trades unions (11)
88% of economists (12)
The National Farmers Union (13)
The Bank of England (14)
The Chief Executive of NHS England (15)
The Royal College of Midwives (16)
Multiple businesses including Ford Motor Company (17) and Rolls Royce (18)

Leave:

The Sun Newspaper
The BNP
The UKIP Party
Nigel Farage
Boris Johnson
Michael Gove
Donald Trump

What has become majorly apparent to me, has been the overwhelming consensus among leaders and experts of all kinds that Britain is stronger in Europe.   Just look at that list.  Look at it!

So, why then, are so many British people thinking differently to that Remain list, according to the current polls?   My observation is that these are the three most common lines people are being fed, and are believing:

Line Number 1:   “We shouldn’t be governed by unelected bureaucrats, we should decide our own laws and how we spend our own money!!”

So, I asked myself, what % of our laws are actually generated by the EU versus our own country?? – can you guess?  It’s actually a hard number to derive, but according to the House of Commons Library Report, it’s 7% (19).   Yes, only 7%!!!
The UK manages its own Budget.   Manages how it spends its income, how much to spend on Health versus Education etc…  Oh, and the NHS is a British institution governed solely in the UK.

I’ve also come to appreciate that it actually makes sense to share some laws, because we all breathe in the same air, share oceans, and live on the same planet.   If we come together as a region to share some common laws, say on air pollution, rather than making different laws, the results are more powerful, and more easily implemented for big businesses which operate across the region.   We’re also all at risk of terrorism, we can protect ourselves more effectively if we co-operate and share intelligence across the region.

Line Number 2:  “We pay £350 million a week to the EU, that’s £50 million a day, £18.8 billion a year!!  If we leave, the money saved could save our NHS!!”

OK – a tough one.  Because on the face of things we are talking big big numbers here!  So I can see why people get angry.  But this is complicated.  The following points are really, really important, the above statement cannot be considered in isolation:

– Those numbers are misleading because they don’t take account of the rebate the UK gets from the EU or the spending by the EU on the UK.   In 2014 following the rebate and spending in the UK from the EU, we paid £5.7 billion which equates to 0.3% of UK GDP, or £100 million per week, or £14 million a day.  (20). Around 36 pence per day per person.
– The 0.3% is really important – take a look at the pie chart.   It is a tiny slither of the total spending in the UK, which if saved, would make no significant difference to the spending on public services, like the NHS or Education.
– The amount the UK economy benefits from investments from EU countries is £66 million a day.  (Source: Office of National Statistics).
– If we leave and save that £5.7 billion a year we pay to the EU, independent economic experts believe the economic damage to the UK will more than outweigh the savings made.  It is hard to predict exactly what will happen and when (might take a couple of years to feel the effects), but independent experts predict the damage to the UK to be between £20 billion to £40 billion (20).  The same report predicts that the deficit which is expected to be cleared by 2019/20, will not be cleared if Brexit happens.
– Yes we are net contributors to the EU, so we get back (directly) less than we give, but isn’t it good to help poorer countries, if it leads to raising standards across Europe and avoiding wars, which the EU has avoided in Europe since the Second World War?
– Some claim we will continue to be able to access the single market in Europe if we leave, however Germany’s finance minister has made it quite clear this won’t be the case (21).   Do we really want to risk rocking the boat here?

Line Number 3:  “Britain no longer feels like Britain, we’re surrounded by foreigners!!!  We have a massive immigration problem!!”

The fact that people are confusing the referendum with immigration rattles me the most!  A few things to bear in mind:

– The overwhelming majority of immigration to the UK over the last 40 years has been from outside the EU (22).  However you feel about the above statement, it has nothing to do with our EU membership.
– Last year, 270,000 EU citizens immigrated to the UK, and 85,000 returned to the EU.  So EU net migration was around 185,000 (23).  Britain has a population of £64.6 million, the impact on our overall population just isn’t very large!
– EU migrants contribute more in taxes than they use in public services, as they are much more likely to be of working age (“economic migrants” – who have come to Britain to work) than the general population (24).
– Tax payments by EU migrants far outweigh welfare paid to EU migrants . They make a net contribution to the UK of £20 billion a year (25)
– Many UK citizens choose to become immigrants in other countries; Spain, Australia, America, China, Germany,  to name but a few.  We like to call ourselves “ex-pats” but in fact, we are immigrants enjoying another country’s culture, it’s public services, it’s weather!  We don’t see this as a problem, we see it as exciting, yet when others wish to come here, so many see it as a problem, which saddens me.

It is true than no-one knows exactly what will happen if we leave the EU, so again, I turn to the experts here….

These are the likely effects on us all if we leave the EU:

– The pound will devalue due to uncertainty about the UK’s economic future.   It’s already happening around fears of Brexit (26).   Since the UK imports most of its good (you may have noticed we don’t “make” or manufacture as much in this country as we used to (!), a normal basket of goods will simply cost you more, because the Pound won’t buy as much.   It would also become more expensive to take holidays abroad.
– Falling currency leads to higher inflation, again, normal basket of goods will cost more (26).
– Panic selling of the weakening Pound may force the Bank of England to raise interest rates, so your mortgage payments will go up (26).
– Unemployment will rise:  a study commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has warned that leaving the EU could cost the British economy 950,000 jobs (27).
– If you own a property in Europe, you will lose the tax perks of being an EU Citizen.  France, for example, is notoriously tough on non-EU citizens, imposing a capital-gains tax of 49%, made up of its “impôt sur les plus values” and an added social charge.   This compares to EU Citizens, who pay 19% on gains from renting or selling properties in France (28).

The question is, are you willing to risk all of the above happening?  Are you willing to ignore all of those listed above in the Remain list?

I will finish on one of the quotes of the founding fathers of the EU, Sir Winston Churchill, addressing the Congress of Europe in 1948:

“A high and a solemn responsibility rests upon us here … If we allow ourselves to be rent and disordered by pettiness and small disputes, if we fail in clarity of view or courage in action, a priceless occasion may be cast away for ever.  But if we all pull together and pool the luck and the comradeship – and we shall need all the comradeship and not a little luck … then all the little children who are now growing up in this tormented world may find themselves not the victors nor the vanquished in the fleeting triumphs of one country over another in the bloody turmoil of … war, but the heirs of all the treasures of the past and the masters of all the science, the abundance and the glories of the future.”

And – against all the odds, we did it, we achieved Churchill’s vision for Europe.

Those “little children” are now retired – the first generation in a thousand years to grow up without the horror of war in Europe, enjoying a standard of living unimaginable in 1948.

All the cities, art, history, people, food and culture of this wonderful continent are open to us whenever we want to visit, to live or to work.

Hundreds of millions of European people who until only a few decades ago were ruled by dictators or communists now enjoy democracy, human rights, the rule of law and the abundance of the free market.

I think that’s worth 36 pence a day.

Let’s not live in isolation.   Let’s not cut ties with Europe.  Let’s drive reform from within.  We are stronger together!

Thanks.

Sources:

(1) http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/10/inspiring-view-britishness-defeat-brexit-isolationists; Tony Blair http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36408239; John Major http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12199111/John-Major-Voting-to-leave-will-poison-Europe-and-divide-West.html
(2) Jeremy Corbyn (Labour) http://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
(3) Tim Farron (Lib Dem) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3243112/Britain-impoverished-backwater-leave-EU-claims-Lib-Dem-leader-Tim-Farron.html Caroline Lucas (Green) http://europe.newsweek.com/caroline-lucas-brexit-european-referendum-425066  Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6944807/Nicola-Sturgeon-vows-to-back-argument-to-keep-Scotland-in-European-Union.html
(4) Barack Obama http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr
(5) Hillary Clinton http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/23/hillary-clinton-britain-should-stay-in-eu
(6) Angela Merkel http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36436726;
(7) https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/may/31/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity-inexplicable-and-brexit-spells-disaster ; http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-say-no-to-uk-exit-from-europe-in-nature-poll-1.19636
(8)   http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/sir-richard-branson-warns-leaving-eu-would-be-very-damaging-for-britain-a6883561.html
(9) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/religious-leaders-oppose-brexit
(10) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/25/vote-to-leave-eu-will-condemn-britain-to-irrelevance-say-historians
(11) http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-unions-idUKKCN0V517D
(12) http://www.itv.com/news/2016-05-29/almost-nine-in-10-economists-believe-leaving-the-eu-would-damage-the-uk-economy/
(13) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/18/british-farmers-uk-eu-nfu-brexit-farming
(14)  https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/12/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-on-hold-as-brexit-fears-bite
(15) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36353145
(16) https://www.rcm.org.uk/news-views-and-analysis/news/royal-college-of-midwives-supports-staying-in-eu-0
(17) http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-ford-idUSKCN0YV1QL
(18) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36534172
(19) http://johnmccormick.eu/2014/05/three-of-the-most-persistent-myths-about-the-european-union/
(20) http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r116.pdf
(21) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says
(22) http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics/#create-graph
(23) https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
(24) http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21631076-rather-lot-according-new-piece-research-what-have-immigrants-ever-done-us
(25) https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/05/eu-migrants-uk-gains-20bn-ucl-study
(26) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/would-the-pound-be-weakened-by-brexit
(27) http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/brexit-could-cost-uk-million-jobs-100bn-says-pwc-study-1550666
(28) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/11903509/Brexit-what-would-it-mean-for-your-EU-holiday-home.html

What will happen if we leave Europe. The sequence of events.

Posted on by Opher

This is, in my considered opinion, what will happen if we vote to leave the EU.

  1. Cameron resigns
  2. Boris and Gove take over with a new hard-right government (for them it is all about power)
  3. That signals more austerity, privatisation and the decimation of public services (Schools, NHS, local government) – more tax breaks for the rich
  4. We have 7 years of economic turmoil in which we attempt to create trade deals with other countries
  5. The market retracts  as it reacts to the uncertainty and we lose billions on the stock market – makes the EU saving look like peanuts
  6. Many businesses/banks/insurance leave to go to Berlin and the centre of Europe – we have no production and our income drops substantially
  7. Scotland demands another referendum and leaves creating further economic woe
  8. The economy heads into a great recession
  9. House prices drop as money pours out of London
  10. Wages drop as the economy shrinks (the poor get hit hardest) – unemployment shoots up
  11. The EU is thrown into turmoil and heads into recession with further impact on Britain
  12. The USA takes advantage of the turmoil
  13. In order to access EU markets we have a worse deal and have to abide by EU rules anyway (all the EU legislation and movement of labour) – migration problem is the same
  14. The new hard-right government strips out Human Rights and Labour legislation and opens up a charter for bosses. More low wage and zero hours jobs, more low paid workers from abroad – more profits for the very rich
  15. Britain declines from the seventh biggest economy to a second-rate status
  16. Without Scotland, with the boundary changes (coupled with control of the BBC and media) we are saddled with a very hard-line Tory government forever.
  17. With the fragmentation and recession there is turmoil in Europe and the further rise of fascist parties
  18. Russia is gleeful about the turmoil in the EU and exploits it
  19. ISIS exploits the weakened surveillance and intelligence – They love disorder – more terrorist attacks
  20. War in Europe?? – a possibility.

All this as a result of wanting sovereignty, to curb immigration and a fear and hatred of ISIS.

A. it hands sovereignty to the hard-right

B. It does nothing to solve the migration crisis

C. It makes us more vulnerable to ISIS

These are my conclusions based on serious consideration of all the various experts. Giving considered, intelligent warnings of the drastic outcomes of any action is not scaremongering.

Scaremongering is building up the threat from ISIS and migration, putting out scare stories and lies about the EU bureaucracy and human rights/workers rights, and telling lies about the cost of the EU – as has been pouring out of the Tory media – that is scaremongering.

All Boris and Gove are interested in is getting into No. 10. They don’t care about the effect on the country. In my opinion they are criminally culpable. They have repeatedly lied.

I want migration managed and know it can be done within the EU. It is not rocket science.

I want ISIS defeated and know that more cooperation is the best way of doing that

I want the bureaucracy of the EU curbed and think that we should do that from the inside

I believe that the EU makes us stronger and more prosperous, protects our rights and freedoms and, despite all its faults, is by far the better option.

I have no doubt that being in the EU is good for Britain.

Now – if you don’t agree with me I’d be interested to hear your considered reasons.

The prospect of a far-right take over through Brexit and the effect on my country frightens the hell out of me!

The real Brexit agenda – my opinion

Posted on by Opher

The real Brexit agenda is for the Right Wing of the Tory party to seize power.

Behind a series of lies and deceit they are selling a pack of untruths.

Leaving the EU will not solve the immigration crisis – it is too complex and requires a lot more than that.

It is not about sovereignty. They want power for themselves.

Brexit is run by a number of extreme right-wing Tories and supported by fascists on the continent.

All Johnson (the opportunist) has his eyes on is power. Fox, Gove and the rest are obnoxious extremists.

A vote to leave will put them in control, signal a programme of austerity and privatisation, throw the country in chaos, cause a dip in house prices and a fall in the economy. An unmitigated disaster.

Their whole campaign is based on fear and hatred.

I have a real fear on this one. The result could be abysmal – worse than any general election.

My greatest fears should we vote to leave Europe.

Posted on by Opher

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  1. We end up with a rabid right-wing government led by Johnson, Gove and Fox.
  2. That would spell mass privatisation and the decimation of our public services (schools and NHS are already suffering under the more moderate Tories with creeping privatisation and reduced funding)
  3. Human rights, workers rights and conditions and pay would be undermined.
  4. Deregulation would run slip-shod over environmental and health and safety in pursuit of profits.
  5. Our economy would drop through the floor causing decades of austerity and further excuse to decimate public services.
  6. The banking and insurance sectors might up sticks to Berlin to be at the centre of Europe which would bankrupt us.
  7. Other businesses might uproot to the mainland if we are no longer part.
  8. We would still be subject to the same bureaucracy and legislation if we wish to trade with Europe but we would have none of the advantages of free movement and no tariffs.
  9. We would have an increased risk of terrorism due to worse cooperation and intelligence exchange.
  10. We would create havoc in areas of the economy requiring free movement of workers.
  11. Our position on the world stage would be reduced. We would not carry much clout.
  12. Europe would be weaker and might split into bickering factions, protectionism and even conflict.
  13. We would have no unified defence against the Soviets.
  14. Our trading position with China, India and others would be weakened.
  15. I think the UK would split up – Scotland would go first.
  16. Our country would be ruled by a bunch of Eton old-boys who would look after their own at the expense of the rest of us. I’d much rather be governed from Europe.

We might descend from being the world’s seventh biggest economy to being a minor island on the fringe of Europe. We produce little, have no resources, no empire and no voice. Our children would live in a Third World country.

That’s my view – what’s yours?

 

Things I like about the European Union and things I don’t like

Posted on by Opher

Things I like:

  1. It has brought peace in Europe for the longest period in history
  2. It has brought in legislation to protect the environment and wild-life
  3. It has brought in legislation to protect workers rights and conditions
  4. It has brought in legislation on essential human rights
  5. It has unified countries in the fight against crime and terrorism
  6. It has created greater cooperation with intelligence gathering
  7. It has greater clout on the world stage and can negotiate better deals
  8. It supports the weaker countries and has helped raise their standards
  9. It has allowed free movement of goods without hindrance
  10. It has allowed me to travel, live and work anywhere in Europe without hindrance
  11. It has opened up European universities to British students
  12. It has opened up European jobs to British workers
  13. It has stimulated the economies of European countries
  14. It has brought prosperity

Things I don’t like:

  1. The freedom of movement has increased our immigration
  2. There is a wastefulness
  3. Corruption and bureaucracy
  4. Opening borders enables criminals and terrorists to move more freely
  5. It costs us money

I come down strongly in favour of staying in despite the negatives.

I think we should work hard on the inside to put a stop to the wastefulness, bureaucracy and corruption and stem the ‘gravy train’.

I think we should finance greater security and intelligence work to track down and arrest criminals and terrorists.

I want freedom of movement but we have to deal with the consequences.

I believe that as the present inequalities in Europe even out there will be less migration. We should focus on the inequalities. We should also look at ways of preventing such large numbers of migrants. I would like to see us working with our European colleagues to solve this (unemployment benefit etc).

Crime, terrorism, pollution, environmental destruction, wild-life protection, human rights and social conditions know no boundaries. They can only be dealt with internationally.

I want a move to global legislation and government with universal laws on environment and human rights.

I have no doubt that we are stronger and safer in and that the present problems can be dealt with through cooperation.