What will happen if we leave Europe. The sequence of events.

Posted on by Opher

This is, in my considered opinion, what will happen if we vote to leave the EU.

  1. Cameron resigns
  2. Boris and Gove take over with a new hard-right government (for them it is all about power)
  3. That signals more austerity, privatisation and the decimation of public services (Schools, NHS, local government) – more tax breaks for the rich
  4. We have 7 years of economic turmoil in which we attempt to create trade deals with other countries
  5. The market retracts  as it reacts to the uncertainty and we lose billions on the stock market – makes the EU saving look like peanuts
  6. Many businesses/banks/insurance leave to go to Berlin and the centre of Europe – we have no production and our income drops substantially
  7. Scotland demands another referendum and leaves creating further economic woe
  8. The economy heads into a great recession
  9. House prices drop as money pours out of London
  10. Wages drop as the economy shrinks (the poor get hit hardest) – unemployment shoots up
  11. The EU is thrown into turmoil and heads into recession with further impact on Britain
  12. The USA takes advantage of the turmoil
  13. In order to access EU markets we have a worse deal and have to abide by EU rules anyway (all the EU legislation and movement of labour) – migration problem is the same
  14. The new hard-right government strips out Human Rights and Labour legislation and opens up a charter for bosses. More low wage and zero hours jobs, more low paid workers from abroad – more profits for the very rich
  15. Britain declines from the seventh biggest economy to a second-rate status
  16. Without Scotland, with the boundary changes (coupled with control of the BBC and media) we are saddled with a very hard-line Tory government forever.
  17. With the fragmentation and recession there is turmoil in Europe and the further rise of fascist parties
  18. Russia is gleeful about the turmoil in the EU and exploits it
  19. ISIS exploits the weakened surveillance and intelligence – They love disorder – more terrorist attacks
  20. War in Europe?? – a possibility.

All this as a result of wanting sovereignty, to curb immigration and a fear and hatred of ISIS.

A. it hands sovereignty to the hard-right

B. It does nothing to solve the migration crisis

C. It makes us more vulnerable to ISIS

These are my conclusions based on serious consideration of all the various experts. Giving considered, intelligent warnings of the drastic outcomes of any action is not scaremongering.

Scaremongering is building up the threat from ISIS and migration, putting out scare stories and lies about the EU bureaucracy and human rights/workers rights, and telling lies about the cost of the EU – as has been pouring out of the Tory media – that is scaremongering.

All Boris and Gove are interested in is getting into No. 10. They don’t care about the effect on the country. In my opinion they are criminally culpable. They have repeatedly lied.

I want migration managed and know it can be done within the EU. It is not rocket science.

I want ISIS defeated and know that more cooperation is the best way of doing that

I want the bureaucracy of the EU curbed and think that we should do that from the inside

I believe that the EU makes us stronger and more prosperous, protects our rights and freedoms and, despite all its faults, is by far the better option.

I have no doubt that being in the EU is good for Britain.

Now – if you don’t agree with me I’d be interested to hear your considered reasons.

The prospect of a far-right take over through Brexit and the effect on my country frightens the hell out of me!

15 thoughts on “What will happen if we leave Europe. The sequence of events.”

  2. We won’t be leaving Europe. Europe is a geographical entity. The EU is a political project, with its endgame the total abolition of national sovereignty and national democracy. Brexit, with other countries following suit, offers the hope of peaceful demerger of the EU, the restoration of democracy; and with the it, the end of supranational dictatorship. The alternative to Brexit is to just sit back and watch the whole shebang implode, as per the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia; the signs are unfortunately already there that such a violent implosion will happen if a peaceful demerger isn’t brought about.

    1. Personally I do not give a hoot for national sovereignty. Patriotism and nationalism are outdated tribal ideas that need discarding. I want a bigger international picture that fits the world. I want equality and legislation on the environment and human rights.
      The EU needs to be made to work or our power base is much weaker. We should be using our energy and influence to do that. The break-up of the EU and our own isolation will be an economic disaster. I take note of what all the economists are saying.
      The EU is as democratic as Britain. We vote for our MEP’s just the same and have control over the bureaucrats in the same way as we have control over our civil servants.
      The Soviet Union’s break-up was because of the arm’s race with the West. It went bankrupt.
      Europe as a bloc has far greater bargaining power. The future is cooperation and not archaic isolationism and fragmentation.
      Britain, which produces next to nothing, is in a very vulnerable position. If our banking goes we have an economic crisis of monumental proportions. That is what we are risking.

      1. We vote for our MEP’s but they are subordinate to the unelected Commission. Where this differs from Britain is that Lords cannot over-rule the Commons, it can only recommend amendments to parliamentary bills.

        You may not give a hoot for national sovereignty, but millions of people throughout the EU do (like it or not); and if the only way that the EU can be held together is by authoritarian rule then it is not worth having.

        Oh and there is a world of difference between international co-operation and supranational dictatorship. Unfortunately, the Green Party, like the rest of the political establishment, is now run by corporate globalists who support the latter.

        As it is, it looks like people power, such as was last seen in Europe in 1989, is going to win the day. In spite of everything, I am optimistic that genuine internationalism will emerge.

        And there is a more obvious reason why the EU cannot be held together and that is because there is no common language, culture and history to hold it all together. The cantonised Swiss model is the only way that a multi-lingual political union can be held together.

      2. Well thank you for that. Very knowledgeable and insightful. I do not entirely agree with you though. I do not believe the EU is an authoritative dictatorship or will become one. I believe Britain should play a central role in leading it towards a less bureaucratic partnership which would be beneficial to all partners. The language barriers and cultural differences are problems as you have highlighted. But I do not believe they are insurmountable and given so time we would create the same kind of unity that presently gives the united kingdom (with its different languages and cultures) its strengths. The Irish, Welsh, Scottish, Cornish and various tribes of English have created a vibrant culture that benefits us all.
        We’ll see how the vote goes. I’m voting for unity and cooperation and against fragmentation and division. I believe that is the only way to defeat ISIS, poverty, war and environmental destruction.

  3. Well Opher – Isis are on the wain are they? Leave the EU is what I want and what I will vote for, we need to control our own Borders, if not close them. Orlando – 20 dead possibly more US born ISIS Terrorist and you state they do not have the numbers in supporters, when I said that to David he nodded his head and said I had got it wrong Isis as I said had millions of supporters, David replied “millions what are you talking about, they have billions” and they do they are not declining. Tell the people of Orlando that.

    1. I feel very sorry for the people of Orlando. What happened there was terrible. But it is one of many such atrocities carried out by an evil bunch of fascist fundamentalists. They are killing thousands out in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and Nigeria; and will continue to do so for some time to come. The number they kill in the West is very small by comparison. But they are being defeated on the ground, beaten back and their leaders killed. It will take years.
      There are only 8 Billion people in the world. Only 1.6 billion are Muslim. Of that 1.6 Billion most are peaceful tolerant people who are bearing the brunt of ISIS’s insane policies. ISIS doesn’t have millions of supporters. It has hundreds of thousands of fanatical nutcases. They are doing a lot of harm and will continue to do so for some time to come until they are militarily defeated and their supporters rooted out.
      Unfortunately the insane gun laws in the USA make it easy for a whole range of extremist nutcases to wreak mass murder. Most of the murderers have no been ISIS – they have been white supremacists and psychopaths.
      Closing borders is not the answer – controlling borders is. We don’t need to destroy the country in order to do that. All these issues have got mixed up in an emotional cloud that Johnson and Gove are exploiting in order to gain power at any cost. In my opinion it will not make us one bit safer. Most of these lone-wolf killers are nationals of the countries they live in. They’re not coming in from outside.
      You vote how you want Anna. If we vote out I am convinced we will find ourselves in a far worse place. Gove and Johnson are extremists who will do a lot more harm that Cameron has done and the years of upheaval and uncertainty will play havoc with the economy. I think the lack of cooperation would play right into the hands of ISIS. It would make us a lot unsafer. So I shall vote in and fight to keep us in.
      I’ve just come back from London where my son is an architect. The uncertainty has already had a dramatic affect on him and London. Firms are already moving abroad and his firm is in melt-down with its second round of redundancies. If we vote to leave he says his architect’s firm will collapse because everyone will take their money elsewhere. That’s not scaremongering, Anna, that is what is happening now. The economy will go into freefall. Recession, public services and jobs will all suffer. That is the only effect. It will not affect ISIS one little bit apart from stopping us countering them. But there you go.

  4. One man’s supranational dictatorship is another man’s international democracy. The EU is far from perfect but it is much closer to the latter than the former. So many problems in our world, from unaccountable global capitalism to environmental destruction and increasing inequality and instability are beyond the power of individual nations to remedy – hence the crying need for concerted international action. Cynical reactionary forces are using crude propaganda to bypass reason and gain control but, like you Opher, I fear they will reap the whirlwind of increasing chaos and cause nothing but havoc. Freedom is important but should never become license to kill or injure equality and human solidarity.

    1. I thoroughly agree Dave. We need global, international legislation and cooperation to deal with global problems like ISIS, poverty, war, pollution, environmental destruction, fundamentalism and the huge corporation conglomerate that is driving things. Fragmentation is no strategy for making the world safer or better – international partnership and cooperation is.
      We are riding a tide of emotion, jingoism, patriotism and nationalism. I hate it. The right-wingers are, in my view, exploiting people’s fears and promising things they cannot possibly deliver. We may live to rue it.

      1. True, alas! What beats me is where the common sense and attachment to reason my granddad used to tell me was natural to ‘the working man’, as he would say, has gone. Perhaps the collapse of union power is something to do with it. We seem to be entering a new post-enlightenment dark ages … my belief is that reason must join with creativity to defeat the forces of paranoia and superstition that are growing in strength – if that doesn’t sound too much like Lord of the Rings!

      2. I’m all for a quest!
        There seems to be a wave of fear out of all proportion to the reality. It is being exploited by those who seek power like Johnson and Trump.
        I think you might be right about the collapse of the power of the unions. We seem to be on our own and just out for ourselves. I think the big global corporations are driving it.
        Hopefully the vote here and in America will be one for cooperation and unity and not fragmentation and isolation.

    1. War! – Whaqt is it good for? Absolutely nothing!!
      I agree with you. There must never be war in Europe ever again!!!
      My fear is that Brexit does not help. I do not think that war in Europe has been maintained by NATO through threats. I think diplomacy through the EU has been far more powerful a force. Bringing people together to talk through their disagreements is far more productive than the threat of force.
      What cost to prevent the madness of war?

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