I know my feelings and thoughts regarding the ensuing vote. They are quite clear: I am firmly for Remain. But I can also greatly appreciate the genuine concerns and fears of those who wish to leave. I too have concerns regarding immigration in particular.
My contention is that those concerns will not be addressed by leaving. Indeed I believe things will be much worse.
Wading through the morass of lies, exaggerations and scare stories put out by both sides is a nightmare. So I was greatly impressed when this was sent through to me by a friend of ours. She has spent the time to look into it in depth:
As a busy working mum of two young children, I’ve never really had the time to keep up with Politics! So I admit it has taken some effort to get my head round both sides of the most topical argument of our time: Whether Britain should Leave or Remain in the EU.
Whilst taking in both sides of the argument, I have come to feel many things. Frustration at so many misleading statements! Anger around the lack of visibility of the voice of certain leaders like the head of the Labour party! But most of all, SADNESS… that a great injustice is being done as many people don’t know what they are voting for because they have been misled by statements that pull on their hearts and emotions.
I thought I’d post my perspective, as a mum who’s thinking about her children and their future, pulling on points I have discovered from others. I hope this will be helpful to others who may still be “on the fence”.
Please share if you found this useful!
Let me start with a list of high profile figures and institutions on each side. Some may surprise you!
Remain:
Former British Prime Ministers Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and John Major (1 – see Sources below)
The Labour party (2)
Every other major UK political party leader including Nicola Sturgeon (3)
Barack Obama (4)
Hillary Clinton (5)
Angela Merkel (6)
Stephen Hawking and 83% of scientists (7)
Sir Richard Branson (8)
40 religious leaders (9)
300 leading historians (10)
The Trades Union Congress and our six largest trades unions (11)
88% of economists (12)
The National Farmers Union (13)
The Bank of England (14)
The Chief Executive of NHS England (15)
The Royal College of Midwives (16)
Multiple businesses including Ford Motor Company (17) and Rolls Royce (18)
Leave:
The Sun Newspaper
The BNP
The UKIP Party
Nigel Farage
Boris Johnson
Michael Gove
Donald Trump
What has become majorly apparent to me, has been the overwhelming consensus among leaders and experts of all kinds that Britain is stronger in Europe. Just look at that list. Look at it!
So, why then, are so many British people thinking differently to that Remain list, according to the current polls? My observation is that these are the three most common lines people are being fed, and are believing:
Line Number 1: “We shouldn’t be governed by unelected bureaucrats, we should decide our own laws and how we spend our own money!!”
So, I asked myself, what % of our laws are actually generated by the EU versus our own country?? – can you guess? It’s actually a hard number to derive, but according to the House of Commons Library Report, it’s 7% (19). Yes, only 7%!!!
The UK manages its own Budget. Manages how it spends its income, how much to spend on Health versus Education etc… Oh, and the NHS is a British institution governed solely in the UK.
I’ve also come to appreciate that it actually makes sense to share some laws, because we all breathe in the same air, share oceans, and live on the same planet. If we come together as a region to share some common laws, say on air pollution, rather than making different laws, the results are more powerful, and more easily implemented for big businesses which operate across the region. We’re also all at risk of terrorism, we can protect ourselves more effectively if we co-operate and share intelligence across the region.
Line Number 2: “We pay £350 million a week to the EU, that’s £50 million a day, £18.8 billion a year!! If we leave, the money saved could save our NHS!!”
OK – a tough one. Because on the face of things we are talking big big numbers here! So I can see why people get angry. But this is complicated. The following points are really, really important, the above statement cannot be considered in isolation:
– Those numbers are misleading because they don’t take account of the rebate the UK gets from the EU or the spending by the EU on the UK. In 2014 following the rebate and spending in the UK from the EU, we paid £5.7 billion which equates to 0.3% of UK GDP, or £100 million per week, or £14 million a day. (20). Around 36 pence per day per person.
– The 0.3% is really important – take a look at the pie chart. It is a tiny slither of the total spending in the UK, which if saved, would make no significant difference to the spending on public services, like the NHS or Education.
– The amount the UK economy benefits from investments from EU countries is £66 million a day. (Source: Office of National Statistics).
– If we leave and save that £5.7 billion a year we pay to the EU, independent economic experts believe the economic damage to the UK will more than outweigh the savings made. It is hard to predict exactly what will happen and when (might take a couple of years to feel the effects), but independent experts predict the damage to the UK to be between £20 billion to £40 billion (20). The same report predicts that the deficit which is expected to be cleared by 2019/20, will not be cleared if Brexit happens.
– Yes we are net contributors to the EU, so we get back (directly) less than we give, but isn’t it good to help poorer countries, if it leads to raising standards across Europe and avoiding wars, which the EU has avoided in Europe since the Second World War?
– Some claim we will continue to be able to access the single market in Europe if we leave, however Germany’s finance minister has made it quite clear this won’t be the case (21). Do we really want to risk rocking the boat here?
Line Number 3: “Britain no longer feels like Britain, we’re surrounded by foreigners!!! We have a massive immigration problem!!”
The fact that people are confusing the referendum with immigration rattles me the most! A few things to bear in mind:
– The overwhelming majority of immigration to the UK over the last 40 years has been from outside the EU (22). However you feel about the above statement, it has nothing to do with our EU membership.
– Last year, 270,000 EU citizens immigrated to the UK, and 85,000 returned to the EU. So EU net migration was around 185,000 (23). Britain has a population of £64.6 million, the impact on our overall population just isn’t very large!
– EU migrants contribute more in taxes than they use in public services, as they are much more likely to be of working age (“economic migrants” – who have come to Britain to work) than the general population (24).
– Tax payments by EU migrants far outweigh welfare paid to EU migrants . They make a net contribution to the UK of £20 billion a year (25)
– Many UK citizens choose to become immigrants in other countries; Spain, Australia, America, China, Germany, to name but a few. We like to call ourselves “ex-pats” but in fact, we are immigrants enjoying another country’s culture, it’s public services, it’s weather! We don’t see this as a problem, we see it as exciting, yet when others wish to come here, so many see it as a problem, which saddens me.
It is true than no-one knows exactly what will happen if we leave the EU, so again, I turn to the experts here….
These are the likely effects on us all if we leave the EU:
– The pound will devalue due to uncertainty about the UK’s economic future. It’s already happening around fears of Brexit (26). Since the UK imports most of its good (you may have noticed we don’t “make” or manufacture as much in this country as we used to (!), a normal basket of goods will simply cost you more, because the Pound won’t buy as much. It would also become more expensive to take holidays abroad.
– Falling currency leads to higher inflation, again, normal basket of goods will cost more (26).
– Panic selling of the weakening Pound may force the Bank of England to raise interest rates, so your mortgage payments will go up (26).
– Unemployment will rise: a study commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has warned that leaving the EU could cost the British economy 950,000 jobs (27).
– If you own a property in Europe, you will lose the tax perks of being an EU Citizen. France, for example, is notoriously tough on non-EU citizens, imposing a capital-gains tax of 49%, made up of its “impôt sur les plus values” and an added social charge. This compares to EU Citizens, who pay 19% on gains from renting or selling properties in France (28).
The question is, are you willing to risk all of the above happening? Are you willing to ignore all of those listed above in the Remain list?
I will finish on one of the quotes of the founding fathers of the EU, Sir Winston Churchill, addressing the Congress of Europe in 1948:
“A high and a solemn responsibility rests upon us here … If we allow ourselves to be rent and disordered by pettiness and small disputes, if we fail in clarity of view or courage in action, a priceless occasion may be cast away for ever. But if we all pull together and pool the luck and the comradeship – and we shall need all the comradeship and not a little luck … then all the little children who are now growing up in this tormented world may find themselves not the victors nor the vanquished in the fleeting triumphs of one country over another in the bloody turmoil of … war, but the heirs of all the treasures of the past and the masters of all the science, the abundance and the glories of the future.”
And – against all the odds, we did it, we achieved Churchill’s vision for Europe.
Those “little children” are now retired – the first generation in a thousand years to grow up without the horror of war in Europe, enjoying a standard of living unimaginable in 1948.
All the cities, art, history, people, food and culture of this wonderful continent are open to us whenever we want to visit, to live or to work.
Hundreds of millions of European people who until only a few decades ago were ruled by dictators or communists now enjoy democracy, human rights, the rule of law and the abundance of the free market.
I think that’s worth 36 pence a day.
Let’s not live in isolation. Let’s not cut ties with Europe. Let’s drive reform from within. We are stronger together!
Thanks.
Sources:
(1) http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/10/inspiring-view-britishness-defeat-brexit-isolationists; Tony Blair http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36408239; John Major http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12199111/John-Major-Voting-to-leave-will-poison-Europe-and-divide-West.html
(2) Jeremy Corbyn (Labour) http://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
(3) Tim Farron (Lib Dem) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3243112/Britain-impoverished-backwater-leave-EU-claims-Lib-Dem-leader-Tim-Farron.html Caroline Lucas (Green) http://europe.newsweek.com/caroline-lucas-brexit-european-referendum-425066 Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6944807/Nicola-Sturgeon-vows-to-back-argument-to-keep-Scotland-in-European-Union.html
(4) Barack Obama http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr
(5) Hillary Clinton http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/23/hillary-clinton-britain-should-stay-in-eu
(6) Angela Merkel http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36436726;
(7) https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/may/31/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity-inexplicable-and-brexit-spells-disaster ; http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-say-no-to-uk-exit-from-europe-in-nature-poll-1.19636
(8) http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/sir-richard-branson-warns-leaving-eu-would-be-very-damaging-for-britain-a6883561.html
(9) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/religious-leaders-oppose-brexit
(10) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/25/vote-to-leave-eu-will-condemn-britain-to-irrelevance-say-historians
(11) http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-unions-idUKKCN0V517D
(12) http://www.itv.com/news/2016-05-29/almost-nine-in-10-economists-believe-leaving-the-eu-would-damage-the-uk-economy/
(13) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/18/british-farmers-uk-eu-nfu-brexit-farming
(14) https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/12/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-on-hold-as-brexit-fears-bite
(15) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36353145
(16) https://www.rcm.org.uk/news-views-and-analysis/news/royal-college-of-midwives-supports-staying-in-eu-0
(17) http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-ford-idUSKCN0YV1QL
(18) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36534172
(19) http://johnmccormick.eu/2014/05/three-of-the-most-persistent-myths-about-the-european-union/
(20) http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r116.pdf
(21) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says
(22) http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics/#create-graph
(23) https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
(24) http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21631076-rather-lot-according-new-piece-research-what-have-immigrants-ever-done-us
(25) https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/05/eu-migrants-uk-gains-20bn-ucl-study
(26) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/would-the-pound-be-weakened-by-brexit
(27) http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/brexit-could-cost-uk-million-jobs-100bn-says-pwc-study-1550666
(28) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/11903509/Brexit-what-would-it-mean-for-your-EU-holiday-home.html
That’s probably the best piece I have seen you write and it is what it is.
Just a couple of points for perusal:
Line no. 2 – This £350 mil per week was the original figure from back whenever.
However, Thatcher had negotiated a big discount.
The figure after we get paid back in bits & pieces actually works out at £164 mil per week.
If we do leave EU, it is believed that the debt could be cleared by 2030, meaning that we could spend that £164 mil a week on ourselves. (as opposed to staying and clearing by maybe 2020)
The 2014 “official” figure of 270k immigrants is believed to be more actually, at around 350k.
So perhaps the figure after subtracting the numbers leaving equates to around 270k net.
UK’s population growth is estimated to reach 69 mil by 2020.
Which means for some reason it is expected to receive 1 mil per year (gross) arriving during each of the next 4 years.
Given the information conveyed on last nights TV report it indicated that Turkey will definitely be joining the fold (UK had previously voted that it should be able too), however, this is some years off. However, that’s another 74.5 million people to consider after 2020.
It should be noted that public services enjoyed by ex-pats abroad are perhaps not quite as free or cheap that are perhaps indicated above. Medical care outwith Europe is most often not free and quite expensive actually and so are the prescriptions, too. There are options – a medical insurance policy that are often very expensive. I can recall back in the 90s, visits to a doctor (for nasty insect bites) would be about £30 consultation fee + prescription charges. What they charge today I can only imagine.) Also dental care costs much higher abroad.
I think it’s fair to suggest that many people whom own property in France can afford to.
If they indeed get hit for larger financial penalty, it’s kind of too bad really. So that aspect wouldn’t swing my vote.
Neither will the views of 40 religious leaders. (who cares what they think, as they are already completely irrational people!)
It’s a huge question really. Were I still doing my old job, I’d have to vote Remain, no contest.
But, today and judging what I see all around me on my local streets I’m for Brexit, as I’m seriously thinking “where have all the local people gone to”. I think that’s a fair question also.
So, today I’m firmly on the fence, having swung in 6 months from one side to the other and back into the middle.
But my biggest question is: would we get Page 3 back in The Sun if we left?
I have it on good authority that all those who vote remain will receive a free copy of the Sun with a special full colour page 3 every single day!
I’m sure that’s not a lie.
There are certainly things to weigh up and the immigration situation is my greatest concern.
I saw that poster on the box last night…mmm?
Whose idea was that?
Still, it can no longer be said that foreigners don’t know how to queue!
Not a great idea was it? Did you see the almost identical 1930’s one from the Nazi’s? It has a resonance that is not pleasant.
Too true – they seem to be queuing perfectly.
I haven’t been following this all that closely, but I have to say there was one paragraph that really made me want to clap:
“Many UK citizens choose to become immigrants in other countries; Spain, Australia, America, China, Germany, to name but a few. We like to call ourselves “ex-pats” but in fact, we are immigrants enjoying another country’s culture, it’s public services, it’s weather! We don’t see this as a problem, we see it as exciting, yet when others wish to come here, so many see it as a problem, which saddens me.”
That is SO true for the whole world! She did a heck of a job sorting her head out there, didn’t she!
Yes she did. I thought it was a great piece of head over heart. I’ve always dreamed of global citizenship, unity and free movement. The problem is that the establishment forces have created a world built on intolerance, racism and huge inequality. If we could only turn our attention away from the greed of screwing every last cent of profit out of everyone and start looking at how to solve war, environmental devastation, overpopulation and poverty we would not have a migration problem at all. Same in society – inequality breeds discontent and fuels crime.
You know, I’d like to see the world at peace and equal, too, but I have this sneaking suspicion that even if that came to pass there would always be divisions along the lines of cultures and nationalities that would end up screwing things up. Even in the US when immigrants came and wanted so badly to be just “Americans” it wasn’t long before there were gang issues. I sometimes thing “us and them” is the true human mentality and will always prevail and will always cause issues. (Nothing to do with religion, btw. Just observing human behavior. Doesn’t take many folks like that to stir things up to a frenzy. Lord! Look at Trump! 😉 )
Human beings have this dichotomy of personalities. It’s almost a polarisation. On one side there is the cruel, vicious, selfish, greedy, nasty and on the other is the pleasant, friendly, altruistic, compassionate, wonderful.
That’s where I think education comes in. We have to process these components, nurture one and get the other to dwindle.
You don’t do that by ostracising or creating failure. You do it through care, empathy and trust.
Education – good, whole-person education – is the key to a better world.
But you know we have got a lot better – go back a hundred years and look at the violence, cruelty, deprivation. No bear-pits, cock-fights or Wild West. We forget. The past was awful.
It is just our numbers and polluting technology that is causing the real trouble today. Comparitively human nature is calmer (most places).
Perhaps because many arrive with nothing in their pockets.
We could not do that.
Not sure what the context for that was Andrew. These wordpress things get out of sequence.
Ref Calinsariel’s June 22nd 1:40 pm comment in reference to a n other’s comment (that I don’t know where it came from or who “she” is)
I just thought a n other’s words were a trifle misleading and simplistic.
In terms of us UK’s going to live abroad. We need to take our own money and quite a lot of it!
Australia for example, has an age cut-off point for immigration for those of working age. If you are above this age you need to have absolute proof of adequate funds. Otherwise, goodbye!
We can’t just turn up and say “gimme”.
Even many UK short-term visitors upon arriving at a country (having filled in the forms you get given on board whilst flying) having written that they intend to stay for the maximum visa allowance period, may find themselves asked to prove that they have enough funds available in order to do so. This applies to anybody from anywhere.
Of course I’m not suggesting that they learn how to cheat better, but really, some seem to ask for attention! Say nothing, tell them nothing.
Right – gotcha!