Brexit – Where are we now?

Posted on by Opher

Brexit – Where are we now?

Well at the Brexit juggernaut trundles down the narrow country lanes following its out of date Satnav which now tells it it’s off the road and heading for a nonexistent destination it is time to ask where the hell are we.

So where the hell are we?

Nobody knows.

So perhaps it is time to look at what we do know.

  • Theresa May is in a blind panic trying desperately to cling on to power like a crushed limpet. Behind her the Tories are hopelessly split in two and pulling in different directions. As a Remainer, in order to gain power, she had to nail her colours to the extreme right of her party and she’s now stuck with them while the more moderate side are beginning to find their voice. She is so desperate to stay in power that she is actually pleading with Europe to give her a break – probably threatening them with Boris or Rees-Mogg if they don’t help her out.
  • The moderate Tories were ousted and jumped ship to take up highly lucrative jobs elsewhere and thumb their nose at the chaos they created.
  • We are negotiating a massive divorce bill that is large enough to make the eyes water and make all that extra money promised for the NHS look risible. We’re going to have to pay through the nose to get out.
  • We don’t know whether we want into the market or out – a hard or soft Brexit. Either way our economy is buggered.
  • Firms are already fleeing the country. The bottom has dropped out of the London housing market because of the tens of thousands heading across the channel taking the money with them. The future economic prospects look grim and our credit rating dropped.
  • The Labour Party is also split and can’t make up their mind. Corbyn hates Europe but can see that we’re buggered economically if we leave. The only ones making sense on Europe are the Lib-Dems and they’ll be lucky to make double numbers in the next parliament.
  • An army of bureaucrats and lawyers are gleefully pocketing huge sums of money as they pick their way through the complex legal frameworks that have become so interwoven with Europe that disentangling takes an army of ‘experts’ all paid for at tax-payers expense.
  • The economy is still flat-lining while the rest of Europe is beginning to forge ahead.
  • The pound has dropped through the floor making all imports more expensive so we’re paying more for most things and inflation is setting in.
  • David Davies is now taking a GCSE in negotiating skills so that he can learn the rudiments of how it’s done – seemingly shouting at foreigners and taunting them (a la Farage) is not working.
  • Hate crime has gone through the roof as the far-right groups have been emboldened by Brexit and Trump and feel it is now fine to display their xenophobia and racism.
  • We are regaled with nostalgia for the days of Empire when Britain was Great in an age of wonder that never was. My Mum talked of those terrible times with families starving, sewn into their clothes for winter and going to school, in classes of fifty plus, with rags tied round their feet in the snow because they couldn’t afford shoes. Some great times they were. No NHS, low wages, extreme poverty and toffs in mansions. Is that where we’re heading? Aah but at least we have the resolute Dunkirk spirit and know how to handle a Blitz.
  • The country is divided like never before with both sides stridently entrenched and unwilling to listen to the other side’s arguments at all. Reason has gone out the window. There is no rational debate. This is partisan politics; it’s emotional not cerebral. All that is important is that they win at all costs. What happens to the country or future generations is immaterial. We hear about derogatory shouts of brainless Brexiteers and Remoaners but nobody is taking an intelligent, objective look at the mess.
  • There is a huge mass of intricate cooperative legislation and institutions that now need teasing apart and nobody has a clue how it is going to be done or how much it will cost to do it and what it will look like when it’s done. We don’t know if the planes will fly, if the environmental protection will continue, what trade will take place, the antiterrorist cooperation will continue, the atomic energy will work, the migrant workers can get in, the human rights legislation will be in place, the workers’ rights will be protected, farm subsidies, Interpol, treaties, joint projects, science funding, the European funding of projects for deprived areas, the rights of our EU citizens living in the UK or UK citizens living in Europe, visas, borders, passports, customs and a thousand other things. It’s a complete shambles. Presumably there are people working on all this. All I know is that it is not going to be cheap. We’ll have to reinvent a lot of it, negotiate with Europe for a lot, set up huge amounts of infrastructure, employ tens of thousands of people doing more bureaucratic rubbish and at the end of the day everything will be worse, harder, slower and more costly. I do know they are putting into place huge car and lorry parking near the ports because they are expecting massive delays.

When the dust has settled and we are out of Europe, in whatever form that takes, all I know is that we will be poorer, as a society we will be worse off emotionally, and the gleeful nationalists who sparked this all off will have made a killing and be sitting pretty.

As Laurel and Hardy were prone to saying – “Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten me into.”

Brexit – What a mess! What a farce!

Posted on by Opher

I blame Cameron. He was far too complacent. He promised a referendum to appease his right wing and take the sting out of UKIP. He gambled the future of the country, for political reasons, in order to win an election.

Well he won the election and instead being able to blame the LibDems for stopping him in their coalition he had to go ahead and do it. It cost him his job (not that he’s bothered – he’s earning a bomb – didn’t have a lot to lose did he?) and he’s sold us down the river.

Not enough thought went in to devising the referendum. It was too important to hinge on narrow margins. There should have been a clear 5% at least.

It was always known that constitutionally a referendum is not binding – it is advisory – it is our sovereign parliament that decides. That should have been made a lot clearer.

Not enough consideration went in to what happens with separate nations. Scotland and Northern Ireland had big majorities to remain. How are their democratic rights going to be addressed?

Some attention should have been given on the form to the reasons for the vote – a simple tick-box?

There should have been more accountability and scrutiny from the media when the lies and false claims were trotted out.

I hope the Brexiteers are going to accept responsibility for Britain’s future economic decline? I doubt it. But it will cost all the poor dearly though I’m sure the rich won’t suffer. The cost of Brexit will be measured in tens of billions (Treasure figures – £220 billion has been mentioned). It will be public servants and the poor who will suffer the cuts and increased prices.

So now we have had it proved in law that the way May has been handling it is illegal. We have sovereignty in this country and it resides in Westminster. The elected MPs must debate and vote.

I would love to think that they might look at the mess and decide, for the sake of our grandchildren, that this suicide note needs kicking in to touch. But as a person who believes in democracy we have to abide by the will of the people – no matter how misguided, dangerous and costly. The job now is to sort the best way of going. That is what needs to be debated. We have to agree the best tactics to make the best out of a bad deal. That is what May was refusing to do. She wanted to impose her own view.

I want the best terms that protect the environment, human rights, workers rights, residencies for established workers and secure the best economic outcome for all of us. It can never be as good as it would have been but it does not have to be a disaster. That would only happen if arrogant snobs like Reese-Mogg and pompous right-wingers like David Davies, Liam Fox and Michael Gove get their way.

Of course, having an unelected government is not a good start – particularly such a right wing one intent on power and tyranny. Thank heavens the judges have told them that they are behaving unconstitutionally.

Perhaps the first step should be to hold a general election and gain a mandate?

Then we need to thoroughly debate the best tactics for leaving and agree what sort of Brexit we want.

One thing is certain – the country is in a mess and we are going to pay.