Today is red hot and sunny. It must be in the 30s. We went for a walk early before it got too hot!! It was brilliant! Like being in Brazil!!
I came back and had to complete the signing and addressing of all the Roy Harper books. I just caught the post. The lady was not amused!! I bet the postman wasn’t either!!
Meanwhile, out in Coronaland our clown continues on his mad experiment as the cases rocket. Looking at the trajectory of new hospital cases they seem to mirror the last wave. They do not seem any flatter at all! The death rate, up to 49, is also following the same pattern.
Last Summer he did the same. Nothing is learnt. The world looks on agog and the scientists look on aghast. In the midst of a raging pandemic our buffoon thinks it is a great idea to take off ALL the brakes!!
I think we’re heading for a disaster!!
The said in the First World War that it was men led by donkeys; this is a country being led by an ass and a bunch of greedy baying imbeciles!!
The new big concern is the South African variant (prevalent in France) which, although not as transmissable, appears to make the vaccines far less effective. If Johnson allows that one in like he did with the Indian variant we could be in big trouble. It will start to spread among the vaccinated.
As if that wasn’t bad enough:
Reports coming in from Israel suggest that the Pfizer vaccine is not as effective as clinical trials indicated. It’s coming in at 64% effective rather than 90% at preventing illness. However, it is still 93% effective at preventing hospitalisation.
Vaccine effectiveness in preventing both infection and symptomatic disease fell to 64% since June 6, the Health Ministry said. At the same time the vaccine was 93% effective in preventing hospitalizations and serious illness from the coronavirus.
Israel sees drop in Pfizer vaccine protection against infections | Reuters
That has big implications for Boris Johnson’s latest gamble. It means that 36% of people vaccinated with Pfizer are still likely to be susceptible to becoming ill. If that is the same with the AstraZeneca and Moderna then we are in real trouble. This strategy of going for herd immunity via allowing the infection rate to go wild will backfire horribly. Even 7% is a very large number of people. Huge numbers could become very ill and the death rate will be enormous.
That certainly has big implications for myself. I shall have to reevaluate my risk factors and address my behaviour accordingly. I shall certainly be a lot more cautious.
This complete opening up is a huge gamble. It goes against all scientific advice and the practice in most countries.
The third jab is becoming available in Autumn, hopefully that will mop up variants and provide a higher level of protection. That might have been the time to open up altogether.
We did this last year didn’t we? We opened up far too soon with all those silly schemes – eat out to help out and back to work. It misfired and set off a second wave that killed tens of thousands and caused millions to suffer long covid. Aren’t we repeating it?
I would open up a little but not all the way. My policy would be:
- Work from home if possible
- Social distance
- Masks indoors
- Pubs and restaurants open outside only
- Outside events permitted
- Inside events with limited capacity, distancing and extra ventilation
At present we are running at 50,000 new cases a day. That will soon accelerate to 100,000. We have a breeding ground for variants. We are pinging away to the death of the economy as millions will have to isolate. We have variants that might evade the vaccine. We have an NHS that they’ve underfunded for a decade and is on its knees. We have huge shortages of NHS staff. The staff are demoralised after being insulted with a pay cut. We have vaccines that might not work as well as hoped.
AND WE HAVE A COUNTRY OPENING UP FAR TOO SOON!!
It’s Groundhog day all over again!! Talk about Deja Vu!!
Aren’t you glad you elected this incompetent clown?????
Stay safe!!
Today has been beautiful here too, but only 25C. I spent a lot of the afternoon watching cricket. And I commiserated with a spin bowler who in the previous over had had an appeal for caught behind (wrongly) given not out.
To be fair to Johnson, he did say something about opening up even if new cases hit 50,000 by Freedom Day. That figure seems to have been pretty accurate. Maybe the dreaded Neil Ferguson has got his models right this time? Or not.
My best guess is that all this comes from Sajid Javid. You and I both know that Johnson only listens to the last person who talked to him. Javid is not only the most freedom-oriented of all the Tories, and one of the very few numerate MPs, but he was also Chancellor for almost a year, so knows the financial bind the UK state is in. I suspect his message to Johnson was, “If we don’t open up NOW, the government is bankrupt.”
But I’m not sure that you’re right on your contention that high infection levels in an area are likely to lead to more mutation. I’d actually expect the opposite; while infection levels with one variant are high, another variant will get “lost in the noise.” It’s when infection levels have been reduced, either by lockdown or by build-up of immunity, that mutations become a problem.
Hi Neil – still oppressively hot here!! I’ve stayed in signing and packaging through most of the day. It’s been too hot to go out!! That’s really unusual for me. I love heat.
I think Johnson goes with what he thinks will make him most popular. But we are in a mess financially. Perhaps they should stop giving out extremely lucrative contracts to their friends and stop paying such ridiculous salaries?? £1.5 million a year to consultants? I’d do that for a fraction! They’ve splashed money about like it was confetti.
The rate of mutation is stable. DNA is very regular. The misreading of DNA code, leading to mutation, is standard. Hence, the more virus, the more mutation, the more variants. Whether a variant is successful is a different matter. That is survival of the fittest. It has to compete. It can do that by evading vaccines or being more transmissable.
Johnson has created a breeding ground for viruses, hence a breeding ground for mutations and variants. It remains to be seen if any of these (random) variants are the fittest. If they are we are in big trouble.