The Corona Diaries – Day 198

This morning it rained so I stayed in and continued working on my Roy Harper book – about a third of the way through the first draft! The weather cleared up into a sunny afternoon so we went to the coast for a walk by the sea, a slice of cake and a coffee. Refreshing.

Back home I’ve been playing some John Mayall live from 1967 with Pete Green. Sounds just like Fleetwood Mac. Fabulous.

In Coronaland we go from bad to worse. Despite Johnson trying to do his cheerleading for the Tory conference (a joke) everything is going pear-shaped.

The Track and Trace is next to bloody useless – with the worst performance yet.

There is no scientific justification for the 10.00 pm curfew – just a cosmetic exercise to make people think something is happening.

Wankcock, Raabit and his Johnson (with Cum pulling the strings) performing like the Muppets they are.

There were a huge 17,540 new cases yesterday, with 77 deaths and 609 new hospital cases. It’s going wild!

The Northern Mayors are up in arms because the government is not discussing anything with them – just continuing to give out orders with consultation or any regard to local conditions. Arrogant and heavy handed – just like the way they are treating parliament. Dictatorial!!

They all think they’re Trump!! There is no debate. The local lockdowns are a disaster. If they do not provide assistance for those without a livlihood how can they survive?

The only good news is that the NHS is getting better at treating the disease. The more they find out the better it is.

Meanwhile in Trumpland the chief bully-boy is getting lambasted for the stupid way he is behaving – pretending to be big and tough while putting all those around him in danger. Fool – hasn’t he killed enough???

Kamala Harris stuffed Pence and Trump pulls out of next debate because it was planned to separate him and Biden in different places – which, of course, would stop his chances of trying to bully and taunt. That’s all he’s got!

Phew!! This isolation is becoming interminable. If only we could be like Vietnam!!!

Stay safe everyone!!

6 thoughts on “The Corona Diaries – Day 198

  1. Yes Opher, the 10pm curfews seem to have had no effect at all. In fact, they may well have made things worse, as everyone is getting turfed out and milling around the area all at the same time. As of today, the UK is now fifth in the world in new cases per day. I confess I’m rather looking forward to the new case counts going through the roof! As long as the deaths per case continue to go down, of course.

    If whatever measures they bring in next week fail to have an effect – as I rather suspect they will, because in many countries (notably in Latin America) it does look as though government actions have had little or no effect on what the virus does – then they’ll be in big trouble. About all they will have left then is to fudge the figures to make it look as though their measures are working. And that won’t help them if the hospitals start to fill up and the people on the ground start telling the truth.

    I’ve said this before, but please don’t think that “the other lot” (indeed, any other lot) would be any better. It’s the system that’s broken, even more than the individuals in “charge” of it.

    As to Trump, yes he is becoming a little fey. But then, we can’t trust any news that comes from the mainstream media either side of the pond. Particularly from his opponents, as their hatred for him is so ingrained that they will say anything to make him look bad.

    Anyway, I’ve been a bit low for the last few days – not with a bug, but with food poisoning. I’ve lost half a stone in three days! Still, at least this morning, the mind is working again.

    1. It looks to me as if the death-rates are following a similar trajectory. The hospital cases are zooming up.
      The death count is likely to be lower this time because of the lower age of the majority of those catching it coupled with better treatments.
      I too am watching to see how this pans out.
      I think the other parties would have handled this much better. A lot of the problem has been arrogance. They just give out orders and don’t listen. They should have drawn up a cross-party team. They should have allowed local testing and tracing. They should be talking to the local mayors and councils. They have been doling out contracts to their chums who are hopeless. They are failing to communicate to the people. Nobody could be worse than this. Their complacency, dithering and stupidity are unmatched. The deaths say it all.
      The 10,00 pm curfew is an example – cosmetic, worse than useless, poorly thought through knee-jerk.
      Same thing with Brexit. They are arrogant, extreme and complacent. They are also hapless.
      You don’t have to believe the media on Trump – just listen to what he says and watch what he does. He’s an evil man.
      I hope you are feeling better Neil – food poisoning can be very nasty!

      1. “They should have been talking to the local mayors and councils” – yes, that’s an important point. Although (sigh), it will never work very well in the UK, because NHS boundaries have absolutely nothing to do with borough boundaries. Unlike the Netherlands, where the gemeenten (boroughs) do the health reporting. But it’s worse than that. Back in July, Leicester City Council were unaware they were about to be ordered to lock down, because they were only being given the new case numbers from Pillar 1, not from Pillar 2 which was generating most of them!

        I don’t think any of the other parties, or a cross-party committee, would have done any better. Complacency, dithering and stupidity (and a lot of of other things) are built into the bureaucracy. And arrogance is built into the political system, because whatever they do, and however much it hurts people, it won’t come back to bite them. (Until election time for the politicians, at least. But that’s no real threat, when there isn’t even one party that’s actually worth voting for. And to the bureaucrats, it’s no threat at all. “I’ll be the vicar of Bray, Sir” might easily be their motto when the In Party becomes the Out Party). That’s the state for you; “the king can do no wrong.”

        I’ve just added the data up to today to my “magic spreadsheet,” though, and deaths per case (against new cases offset by 28 days) are still going down. The latest day whose data I feel confident in (October 1st) is showing a deaths per case ratio of 0.10%, and it’s still going down. That compares with 0.89% on September 1st, 6.04% on August 1st and 37.2% on June 1st (very close to the peak of the whole epidemic, 39.4%).

      2. I do think you are wrong about Labour. They would not have made as big a mess of this Neil. This is incompetence on a grand scale.
        Like Brexit, a whole nation issue, it should have been dealt with in a cross-party manner.
        This spreadsheet of yours sounds interesting. Have you got the right delay though. It looks to me as if the death-rate is going up as before.

      3. Have I got the right delay? I’ll reply here rather than on your newer thread, because the answer is a bit technical.

        Some clever statistician called Wood worked out that the distribution of days from first symptoms to death (for those who die of it) is roughly a log-normal distribution with a mean of 21 days and a standard deviation of 12.7. I can certainly buy the log-normal bit; but this kind of distribution has a very long right tail, so individuals can easily last well longer than 28 days before expiring. But well more than half don’t last as long as 21. A few weeks ago, I tried fitting several different offsets (14 days, 21, 28, 30, 35, 42) to the UK data, and came to the conclusion that a delay of 28 days gave the cleanest picture. Of course, at a time of rising cases, a too-short delay will give an understated deaths per case, and a too-long delay an overstated one. But I still think 28 days is as good as any.

        As to Brexit, I think it’s rather unfair to use that as a comparison. Brexit should have been done and dusted by the middle of 2018. If democracy has any meaning at all, then when the people deliver a verdict in a referendum and the government has promised (in writing!) to follow the decision, it ought to be done. But the remainers, and most of all the Tory ones, sabotaged the process. Again, it happened because the system doesn’t work for the people, only for the ruling class.

        As to Labour, they are just as much part of the ruling class as the Tories; and their history of making big messes is even worse. Think for example of the late 1970s, when people who had retired on fixed pensions had everything they had saved for taken away by inflation. Or 2001, when they encouraged diesel cars over petrol, thus making pollution worse not better.

        Anyway, I’ll e-mail you the latest version of the magic spreadsheet, and you can see for yourself. (The deaths per cases data is in the far right column).

      4. That sounds about right to me Neil. 28 days is a good one to go with.

        In terms of Brexit – I disagree.
        The vote was binary. There was no indication of what sort of Brexit. There never was a mandate for a hard Brexit.
        I agree that the vote was taken and, despite the fact of how damaging it will be and that it was based on lies, we have to implement it.
        The mistake was made by May. She went with the extreme Brexiteers who always were a minority instead of saying that we were going out but a cross-party group needed to be set up (representing the whole nation) to decide how. That should have been decided before triggering. If she had done that I reckon there would have been a near-unanimous agreement for a soft Brexit and we would be out now with everybody united, good relationships in Europe and not too much damage to the economy. We would have broken legal ties but retained the Customs Union and Single Market. It would have been a good compromise.
        I disagree about Labour too.
        They were not an establishment party – which is why they have trouble. The capitalists remove capital and ruin the economy. The first Labour government did amazing things. Wilson was great and took us forward. The economy under Blair was as good as any and public services blossomed.

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