It was raining. It wasn’t meant to be but it was. Not that it mattered greatly. We’ve a grandchild staying and that means playing, reading, games and going out to the play centre.
My daily walk was hit on the head! I did manage to play a bit of Billy Bragg though!!
Meanwhile, out in Coronaland, our clown of a leader avoids leading – probably best for the country. Where is he??
We had another 49,298 cases with 180 deaths. – a think the government is happy with a thousand or two deaths a week – just as long as they keep voting for him. That’s a thousand + grieving families. When are people going to wake up to realise that it didn’t have to be this way. There are alternatives.
Javid says the cases could top 100,000 a day. No kidding. But they are laid back about it. So what if the NHS is overwhelmed, nurses and doctors at breaking point. If it breaks down they have a case for privatising it and bringing in those Yanks to run it. Perhaps that’s the plan? Failure is a win!
Safe in their hands!! Not!!
The warning is that we could be back in lockdown by Christmas. Labour calls for plan B. Wouldn’t you think that a little common sense is in order? Perhaps bnringing in moderate measures now – advising on social distancing, wearing masks, ventilation. We have nothing. The pubs are packed without a mask in sight and no social distancing. No wonder the virus is having such a great time. We’re a country of morons without a leader.
The government is counting on vaccines and boosters getting us through – but what about the millions shielding, the vulnerable and the antivaxxers?? They are being thrown to the wolves. Money is all that matters!!
What the hell are Labour doing?? This government are such easy targets. Everything they’ve done is a disaster. Labour should be 30 points clear!! I still can’t believe that people are still supporting this pathetic bunch of incompetent clowns.
A worrying thing was the BBC refusing to put on David Hare’s drama about the pandemic. I think that clearly shows how much the Tories are in control. The BBC is not a major propaganda machine on behalf of the Tories.
How can a man stand such times and live?
Stay safe!! Everything passes.
Opher, I’ve just updated my UK magic spreadsheet with data up to yesterday.
As far as hospitalizations are concerned, the current level of hospital occupancy by COVID patients is 121 per million, as against 575 per million at the peak last January. That’s just 21% of the peak value. This is going up, but only slowly (about 38% over the course of the last three months).
There are currently 13 COVID ICU patients per million, as against 60 per million back at the peak – that’s 22% of the peak. ICU occupancy with COVID patients has been remarkably stable since July; it went up to a small peak in mid September, and since then has gone back down by about 10%. So, if Javid is looking at the same figures I am, I expect he shouldn’t be too worried for the short term. Anyone that says there’s a big problem right now is merely stirring the pot. And if he now thinks cases may top 100,000 a day inside a few months, that’s exactly what Ferguson and co were saying back in August; and it didn’t happen.
As to deaths, the deaths per case level now is 0.4%; down from around 2% at the same time last year, and a cumulative deaths per case over the whole epidemic of about 1.6%. If you’re going to get the thing, now is a good time to do so – before another more lethal variant arrives!
Interesting Neil. But do you think that a thousand deaths a week is OK?
The problem with a more lethal variant is that it could evade both the vaccine and your own immune response. Getting it now will not necessarily save you against a lethal variant.
The immune response does not seem to last very long – six months at most. We might need perpetual booster shots every six months
Opher, once the virus is out there, the deaths are to an extent “baked in.” If everyone is going to have to get it eventually (and that looks like where we’re headed), then a certain proportion are going to die of it. The trick is to try to minimize that proportion from here on in. According to Worldometers, the UK is currently 27th among countries in order of deaths per million (25th if you exclude dependencies such as French Polynesia and Gibraltar). That’s bad, but not as bad as some. The UK is now also 20th in the list in cases per million (16th excluding dependencies). The situation has changed a lot in the last three months or so, in the right directions: up in the list in case numbers, down in deaths. The change of health secretary from an idiot to someone who is reasonably numerate may well have helped!
I think Sajid’s purpose in ploughing on towards herd immunity is in an effort to forestall a later, more lethal variant. Locking down now would simply give the virus more time to evolve, and (I would guess) a more lethal variant is about as likely as a less lethal one. I do know that the very first variant that arrived in the UK (the one I had, way back in January of last year) killed 1.6% of those who got it world-wide, but the second one (which arrived in the third week of February 2020) killed 4%. The current variant only kills 0.4%, so the lethality does vary a lot with time.
As to how long immunity lasts, I heard last year that it was at least six months, but I haven’t come across any more recent confirmed figure. A bit odd, that.
BTW, new cases yesterday were 36.5K, as opposed to 51.4K just four days earlier. You expect cases for a week to peak on a Thursday or Friday, and drop on Sunday, but this week it has not only dropped significantly on Sunday, but on Monday as well. That’s a bit odd, too; we’ll have to wait and see.
It may well be true that we are all going to have to get it sooner or later. We will probably, as with fl, get it a number of times in a lifetime. I want to be sure that when I get it I am triple vaccinated and they have developed good treatments. It is the unvaccinated and those with underlying problems who are most at risk.
Herd immunity is no longer viable. The only ways of getting herd immunity is if everyone is vaccinated or has had the disease. But immunity only lasts for six months and people who have had the disease or been vaccinated can still pass it on ergo the virus always has a host hence no herd immunity. People can get the virus time and time again. If the whole population was vaccinated on the same day we would probably be virus-free for six months until it was brought in again from outside.
It’ll be very up and down. I’m getting my booster in two weeks time. That will see me OKI for another six months. I think that is the pattern for the foreseeable future.