Very cold today. I walked up my hill and noticed that the may blossom was all coming out but the celandine had all closed up! I heard my spotted woodpecker (I lay claim to all the animals I see and hear).
I’m still hearing that 12-bore serenade as hunters are out there killing anything that moves.
Back home I’ve been playing some Little Walter and writing. I’ve just started the final chapter of my Sci-fi book – first draft. 47,000 words so far. Quite pleased but much work ahead.
Meanwhile out in Coronaland – our clown has still not properly closed our borders though they’ve added a few more countries to the red list. I don’t think they understand viruses! They’ve also foolishly started urging people back to the offices. They don’t seem to learn!
The Pfizer vaccine has been producing 100% effectiveness against the South African strain. Excellent!
We’re moving towards a vaccine passport even though a number of politicians are squealing. It’s bound to happen.
The current state of play around the world. Some countries – like New Zealand, Singapore and Vietnam continue to do brilliantly.
The levels in the USA is going up a bit but the UK is looking good. The vaccine effect is biting.
Brazil is the basket case with Bolsonaro still refusing to introduce preventative measures. They’ve got a catastrophe on their hands.
| Country | New Cases yesterday | Deaths yesterday | Rising or falling |
| USA | 77,718 | 955 | Rising slowly |
| UK | 4,478 | 51 | Falling slowly |
| Brazil | 91,097 | 3,769 | Rising fast |
| New Zealand | 0 | 0 | Same |
| Vietnam | 14 | 0 | Same |
The other big news story are the blood clots with AstraZeneca. There is a lot of debate about whether the clots are a result of vaccination or naturally occurring. They are such small numbers as to be insignificant anyway!
Based on the Germany data alone, if you vaccinate a million people then you would expect 12 to have a blood clot and four of them to die.
But if a million 60-year-olds catch coronavirus then around 20,000 would die of Covid-19. If a million 40-year-olds catch coronavirus then around 1,000 die. It would be a few hundred people in their 30s.
The benefits of vaccination clearly increase with age and countries like Germany and Canada have allowed the AstraZeneca vaccine to be used in older age-groups. These decisions will also be driven by which alternative vaccines they have available and who still needs to be immunised.
In the UK there have been 5 cases out of 11 million. I’d prefer to take my chances with that rather than covid. The odds are extremely good.
So stay safe!!
Opher, I’ve just completed my latest COVID rant. And towards the end, it is a rant! I’ll sanitize and publish it tomorrow.
I conclude that the vaccines are, indeed, working once the uptake goes beyond a certain level. From the few countries which have rolled out vaccines far enough, it looks as if 20% vaccine uptake (both jabs) among the general population isn’t enough to get to herd immunity; but 50% uptake looks as if it does the trick. So far, though, only Israel has got that far.
Now up at http://www.honestcommonsense.co.uk/2021/04/covid-19-are-vaccines-working.html.
I’ll enjoy having a look at that later today Neil!
That sounds highly promising Neil. Now to get the whole world jabbed.