The Corona Diaries – Day 317

Today was a lot less miserable than yesterday. It was overcast and cold but at least it wasn’t raining! I don’t like rain! I walked up my hill but annoyingly forgot to put on my fitbit to record my endeavours!! Never mind!

There was not a lot to report on my walk. Nature is very quiet. All I could hear was the occasional boom of a shot or two. Every one of my walks is accompanied by shots as farmers and country sports enthusiasts take potshots at anything that moves. There’s a continuous war going on out there. Nature is blasted on a daily basis. It’s a wonder that thyere is anything left. No wonder the surviving vestiges of life is so furtive.

This is the second day after my vaccination. The slight tenderness in my arm has completely gone. Not a great price to pay for immunity against a killer virus.

I’m already looking forward to my second vaccine shot.

The reports on the efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine shows that there is a good level of protection for the first shot. However, I had the Pfizer vaccine and I haven’t seen any results for the initial shot of that one. The efficacy following the second shot is higher with the Pfizer. I’m working on the principle that it is likely to be at least as goos as the AstraZeneca for the first shot.

My second shot is likely to be at the end of March or April. Right now my immune response will be starting up and will reach full efficacy in around twenty days. So by the end of February I should have a fair degree of protection. By the middle of April I’ll have high protection.

It is also good news that the vaccines also seem to greatly reduce the contagiousness of a person. This has big ramifications for the opening up of the economy.

I was hoping that the vaccine might have been tweaked by March so that my second shot would give protection against the variants. That doesn’t seem to be the case. AstraZeneca say they should have a tweaked vaccine to combat the variants by autumn. That’s disappointing. It sounds as if we will have to get a booster in the autumn. But OK. I’ll settle for that.

The roll out of the vaccine is going well with more than 10 million now vaccinated. That should start bringing the infection rate down.

I’m hoping for a good summer. By then the most vulnerable should have been vaccinated, a herd immunity should kick in, the abysmal track and trace might be able to deal with the lower numbers, the summer heat will reduce the virus level, and we might just be able to get on top of it and get back to some degree of normality.

I’m optimistic!

Levels are coming down in both the UK and USA and going up in Brazil! Vietnam in all over its mini-outbreak and New Zealand has just 1 case!!

Things are looking up!!

6 thoughts on “The Corona Diaries – Day 317

  1. Opher, I’ve spent the whole of today extending and updating my “magic spreadsheets.” And producing the graphs. I haven’t started writing the article yet, but the keynote has got to be: “How have the Danes done so well?” (Compared with the rest).

    This time round, in addition to what I had before, I’ve got graphs of hospitalizations, intensive care usage and vaccinations. The vaccination data doesn’t really mean much yet; except that, in terms of people who have had both jabs, the Danes and Italians have both already overtaken the UK, and the Germans are closing fast.

    It’s going to be a long essay!

      1. I heard that AstraZeneca had a serendipitous cock-up in one of their trials; one batch of people got only a half dose in the first jab. They ended up better protected with one and a half doses, than other groups did with two! But you had a Pfizer, so that doesn’t have a direct bearing on you.

        We’ll see about the effectiveness of the 12-week policy when the data is in for all the different countries. I’ suspect that one month from now may be a bit too soon to be sure. But some time in March, we should be able to see clearly detectable drops in the R-rate; and if they are different in different countries, that will start to tell us what works and what doesn’t.

      2. Yes – that will be fascinating to see how effective they all are – particularly in relation to the different strains.
        I had to laugh about Sputnik V. They were all very quick to condemn it and the way it was brought out – now it appears to be among the safest and best! I wonder how the Chinese ones will perform?
        Such prejudice, competition and stupidity!!

      3. Yes, never underestimate the standard of Russian science. It was good even in Soviet times – once Lysenko had been got out of the way.

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